The whole week was a mess. The market continued to slide, the number of buyers dropped and never quite overtook the amount of sellers on the market, and the marketplace even closed.
My own portfolio endured a difficult week, dropping to nearly $300 in the red. This was indicative of the entire market as Moments dropped in value throughout the community.
The mood on Discord was one of anger, frustration and then general apathy: a circle that I myself also experienced. There was a pre-order pack due to drop by April 7th – this failed to happen with relatively poor communication from the Top Shot team, and also the Marketplace was down for a period.
Alas, the market (I hope) is cyclical and the dip presented an opportunity to snag a Moment at a relatively good value.
Using my Dapper Balance, I splashed out on a Jayson Tatum Base Set (Series 2) Limited Edition for $27. Although it’s a 1200+ serial number, the market sales history has shown it could fetch anything from $50 to $500 in the medium term.
Again, I stuck to my new tactic of only purchasing Limited Edition Moments. The sales history of this particular Jayson Tatum Moment paints a pretty picture moving forward.
Light at the End of the Tunnel
Having bottomed out a swing of almost $450 and a low of $-295, my portfolio is starting to show some life again.
Although it very much remains in the Intensive Care Unit wing of NBA Top Shot, the portfolio prognosis is a positive one.
While the big red $-245 profit is alarming, the improvement in the last twenty-four hours of 6% bodes well for the coming weeks.
I have been vocal in how bullish I am on the future of NBA Top Shot, and still believe it is only operating at about 20% of its full potential. As such, I expect to see my portfolio breakeven again within two weeks (particularly with the rescheduled April 14th pre-pack drop).
As the week started, the slide in the market continued for everyone, and my overall position maintained its drop in value and sat at -$150.
Luckily, it wasn’t all bad news. There was a new drop announced, titled ‘Cool Cats Drop 3’. The Cool Cats Series 2 Drop could not have come at a better time on my NBA Top Shot journey as I was beginning to lack motivation and needed a boost.
The waiting room for the drop opened around 45 minutes before the drop time so I got in line and hoped for a good number. As the drop time approached, there were over 272,000 people in the waiting list, all vying for a piece of the 67,500 $12 releases.
After swinging and missing on my first three queues, I was overjoyed when I hit a winner with this one and was assigned spot 4867 out of the 272,000.
Note: If a drop is due to start on the hour, you will not get access to your pack on the hour. There is often a long wait as the Top Shot team work their way through the queue. People pull out last-minute, others cannot complete transactions and no doubt many others run out of phone or laptop battery and lose their spot in the queue. If you’re roughly 5000-10000 above the allotted number of packs, it’s often worth biding your time in the queue just in case.
My position was 4867 so I was well within the 67,500 allotment. The queue took about 25 minutes to get through to my number, and by then I was getting excited and anxious.
What if my internet dropped? Did I have enough battery on my laptop?
Thankfully, when the time came it was a smooth transition from the queue to a ‘Buy Now’ screen. I immediately clicked the button, paid my $12, and awaited my first ever drop.
The screen shot to my release and I unveiled by five moments one-by-one to the background of one of a most aesthetically pleasing user interface.
My release were as follows:
– RJ Barrett Dunk – Common – LE #12187/15000 ($100) – Joel Embiid – Jump Shot – CC #53/35000+ (circa $1000) – Kristaps Porzingis – Dunk – Common #14293/35000+ ($50) – Chris Boucher – Dunk – Common – #20457/35000+ (circa $30) – Collin Sexton – 3-Pointer – #21852/35000+ ($20)
Tuesday (March 23rd) – Analysing My New Moments
On the whole, I had done well. Really well.
After following some of the strategies shared by my podcast friends, I decided to wait until the next day to list all of the Moments for a good chunk above Market Value (I used Moment Ranks to cross-reference with others).
My pack fell into two categories:
– High Value (Barrett Cool Cats & Embiid Low Serial #53) – Average (Porzingis, Boucher, Sexton)
As my interest in NBA Top Shot continues to rise, the chasm between my investment and the holy grail of $15,000 grows ever wider. Maybe Top Shot isn’t as easy I first thought and the timing of a bear market has not been kind to me.
As a result, I decided to commit to the analytical aspect of the market to see if I could gain a deeper understanding of the the market. Markets are cyclical and this isn’t the first time NBA Top Shot has seen a drop.
After some initial research, I decided to start using the following tools:
After analysing the Market Moves on Evaluate Market, I settled on a Josh Okogie assist for $13. According to Evaluate Market, his value was trending upwards at a ferocious pace, hitting +44% in the twenty-four hour period.
That acquisition brought my total spend from $989 to $1002.
Bradley Beal, a player that I always enjoyed watching purely for his aggression and stubbornness, experienced a boost of +53% in value over the same twenty-four hour period so I bought him at $16, bringing my total to $1018.
As can be seen above, his price quickly dropped to $13, meaning a $3 loss.
My total Moments at this point was 6, but I was feeling good about my collection, despite my rare Markieff Morris continuing his slide.
Saturday (March 20th) – Podcast Overload
On Saturday morning, I went for a walk accompanied by the usual NBA Top Shot podcasts:
– The First Mint – NBA Top Shot Insider – Beyond The Arc
The Top Shot Insider listen was of most benefit this week, not just because his pods are bite-size pieces at six minutes each, but because he outlined three mistakes people are making and how to avoid them. They certainly resonated with my own strategy. Here they are for your benefit:
3. Do not buy for the fear of missing out (FOMO). If you miss out on a pack, do not just buy a moment immediately.
2. Stick to buying top tier players. Do not buy a random moment that forms part of a challenge.
1. Fees. You are charged a 5% transaction fee when buying a moment with your card, and another 5% when you try to sell it. If you buy using a Dapper account, there is no fee. You will save 10% using just your Dapper balance.
NBA Top Shot Insider Podcast
Sunday (March 21st) – Market Tank Continues
After the high of buying some new Moments on Saturday, unfortunately the slide in my portfolio value continued. From a position of profit, I was now down $164.
After scouring the Discord and some podcasts for answers, it appeared I was not alone. The entire market was down. Even CryptoSlam’s daily sales trend was down from a peak of $42 million almost thirty days ago to $8 million today, with the slump affecting everyone.
Altbae is a seller I follow with a particularly strong portfolio. His Lifetime Profit, according to MomentRanks, and I could see his profit had slipped from roughly $240,000 a week ago to $198,000.
This was not an isolated drop. The market was in freefall.
However, it was not all bad news. The Top Shot gods announced that a drop was due to take place on Monday, so I remained bullish about my Top Shot future and held my breath for a good drop.
As it stands, nearly two weeks, I’ve invested the following
– Joe Ingles S2 Common CC @ $5 – Markieff Morris S1 Rare LE @ $645 – James Harden S2 Common LE @ $265 – Karl-Anthony Towns S2 @ $74 – Josh Okogie S2 @ $13 – Bradley Beal S2 @ $16 Total Expenditure: $1018
My portfolio is currently valued, according to MomentRanks, at $854. That’s a whopping loss of $164.